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Post By
dave

In Reply To
Odin's Illegitimate Son

Subj: Re: This pretty much says everything....(continuation of what you copy pasted from KG's post)...
Posted: Mon Jan 25, 2010 at 08:05:13 pm EST (Viewed 1 times)
Reply Subj: This pretty much says everything....(continuation of what you copy pasted from KG's post)...
Posted: Sun Jan 24, 2010 at 01:44:20 pm EST (Viewed 17 times)



    Quote:
    ----Alright, there you have it ladies and gents....It all boils down to a writer's opinion...So, getting the "average" portrayal is nonsensical, because different writers have very different opinions from one another...what would then be the basis of the "average"?  It would be like, getting one's weight on earth, then on the moon, then on jupiter, then on pluto, and "average" everything to get the "true weight".  Absurd.


Interestingly (perhaps) enough, expert illicitation is a big part of risk assessment in nuclear and chemical engineering.  For certain processes and events that are so rare that we do not have sufficient data to model them, experts are brought in to estimate the likelihood of certain events given that a few other things have already happened. It's assumed that they are experts of course so we wouldn't have differences as big as your weight on the moon, on Jupiter, etc.  However, it's typical for the uncertainty distribution of the illicited opinions to be much larger than the actual modeled result. Regardless, you can still take an average and place upper and lower bounds on it.
For example, let's say that from data in comics I estimate that Spider-man can press 12 tons.  Now let's say that I only have the data (and assumed distribution) to say it's really 12 +- 2 tons.  So I bring in experts that say 5 +- 1, 15 +-3, etc.  I can still get an average and a range for that, and it's very likly that the uncertainty will be bigger than the +- two tons that I pulled from the "data" in comics.


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